New research suggests that UK house prices are only going to increase as we enter Autumn, based on the theory that the housing market follows a predictable seasonal cycle.
The pandemic has pushed house prices to sublime levels. The introduction of the stamp duty holiday and increasingly easy access to mortgages, demand for homes has boomed. But when the stamp duty ended in June this year, it was widely expected that demand would fall and take prices down with them.
This has not happened. According to Halifax, prices have gone up by more than 7% in the last year alone. With the stamp duty holiday behind us, demand has not disappeared. It has eased slightly, for now, but as we enter Autumn, prices are still going to rise.
According to research by estate agency, Keller Williams, the average house price in autumn – September, October, November – over the past three years has sat at £240,000.
As the year moves into winter – December, January, February – the average house price climbs even further. Over the past 36 months, the average house price in winter has been £243,998.
Moving into Spring – March, April, May – the average price rises again to an average of £245,000.
It is only when summer arrives that prices start to drop. Summer sales over the past three years have created an average house price of £237,980, the lowest price for the whole year.
The data, therefore, suggests that having already seen a summer of hot house price growth as a result of the pandemic, values are only going to get higher as we move towards the end of the year and are unlikely to drop until at least June 2022.
Ben Taylor, CEO of Keller Williams UK, said:
“The stamp duty holiday has spurred an incredible run of upward house price growth and despite many predicting a market slump, we’re yet to see any let up.
“Season trends suggest this could be the case for the rest of this year and much of next as the market tends to perform at its best during the autumn, winter and spring seasons.
“For buyers, this is difficult news to stomach, especially those who are hoping to move sooner rather than later. But it will no doubt be welcomed by sellers who should continue to secure a very good price when entering the market.”